According to a Times of India article, India can expect a 1 to 1.5 degree Celsius rise in temperature and more intense but fewer spells of rain by 2030. For example, if a place receives 60 cm seasonal rainfall in 30 days, climate change can ensure the same amount of seasonal rainfall occurs in 20-25 days resulting in an increased intensity of rainfall on any rainy day.
The article reports that the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) used the UK meteorological office’s regional climate model PRECIS which, unlike global models, can capture the orography (formation and relief of mountains) better.
IITM scientist Krishna Kumar said, “We have to see whether there will be any change in the tracks of monsoon depressions or in the onset of the monsoon. We must also assess the impact of climate change on socio-economy fronts too” and mentioned that “one has to assume the amount of emissions in future. Hence, projections in climate change will also have uncertainties. It is obvious that there is going to be climate change, the question is, how can we mitigate it?”
“Reducing emissions, capturing carbon and storing it or by changing the albedo (reflectivity) of the atmosphere can help. Many geoengineering methods involving mitigation techniques are being explored now, but we should assess their likely impact on our monsoon climate,” Krishna Kumar said.